Oil Futures Hub
A comprehensive view of the crude oil market. Price action, volatility regime, term structure, COT positioning, related ETFs, and supply-demand context — all in one dashboard.
Above 0 = backwardation · Below 0 = contango
Near-term and deferred prices are roughly equal, indicating balanced supply-demand expectations.
- Commercials
- Large Specs
- Small Specs
Net positions by trader type. Data from CFTC Commitment of Traders reports.
5-year seasonal average: 426.4M bbl
Historic peak: 727M bbl (2009)
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Updated weekly (typically Wednesday). Data as of Oct 1, 2026.
Reading Guide
Green bars (Positive Net GEX) — Strikes where call gamma dominates. The tallest green bar is the Call Wall, acting as potential resistance.
Red bars (Negative Net GEX) — Strikes where put gamma dominates. The deepest red bar is the Put Wall, acting as potential support.
Gamma Flip — The strike where net GEX crosses zero. Above the flip, dealers are long gamma (dampen moves). Below, dealers are short gamma (amplify moves).
Max Pain (MP) — The strike where option writers would have the least total loss. Price tends to gravitate toward this level near expiration.
Estimated gamma profile for USO using 496 option contracts. Greeks calculated via Black-Scholes model with Alpaca options data. Weighted by daily volume. Not a trading recommendation.
Reading guide: The thin line shows daily P/C values; the bold line is the 10-day moving average which smooths noise. A P/C above 1.0 means more puts than calls (bearish hedging); below 0.7 signals bullish positioning. Reference lines at 0.7 (bullish), 1.0 (neutral), and 1.2 (bearish) mark key sentiment zones. Extreme readings can signal contrarian opportunities.
Meeting dates subject to change. OPEC+ currently holds ~5.86 mb/d in total production cuts. Source: OPEC.
| Basin | Production | Rigs |
|---|---|---|
| Permian Basin | 6.2 mb/d | 303 |
| Eagle Ford | 1.2 mb/d | 48 |
| Bakken | 1.2 mb/d | 34 |
| DJ/Niobrara | 0.6 mb/d | 13 |
| Anadarko | 0.4 mb/d | 18 |
| Appalachian | 0.1 mb/d | 12 |
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, Baker Hughes Rig Count. Rig counts and production estimates as of late 2024.
- All-Time Avg
Avg monthly return with heatmap shading and % positive frequency below. Historical data for informational purposes only. Data from Yahoo Finance.
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Wednesdays at 10:30 AM ET) is the single most impactful regular data release for oil prices. Builds (inventory increases) are bearish; draws (decreases) are bullish. The API report Tuesday evening often previews the direction.
OPEC+ production quotas and compliance levels directly control global supply. Meeting outcomes, surprise cuts or increases, and member compliance all create significant price moves. Watch for monthly meetings and ad-hoc ministerial sessions.
Tensions in key producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) create supply risk premiums. Sanctions, shipping route disruptions (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea), and conflict escalation can cause rapid price spikes independent of fundamental supply-demand.
Oil demand follows predictable seasonal cycles. Summer driving season (May-September) typically boosts gasoline demand and supports prices. Winter heating oil demand peaks in Q4-Q1. Refinery maintenance turnarounds in spring and fall temporarily reduce crude demand. Hurricane season (June-November) can disrupt Gulf of Mexico production and Gulf Coast refining capacity.
Crude oil and the US Dollar Index (DX) typically exhibit an inverse relationship. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and pressuring prices lower. Conversely, a weaker dollar tends to support oil prices.
Energy sector stocks (XLE) are highly correlated with crude oil prices. Rising oil prices boost revenue and earnings for energy companies, driving XLE higher. XLE can sometimes lead or lag oil price moves, providing confirmation signals.