Futures Analysis Tools
Advanced calculations & visualizations for tracking market internals, positioning shifts, and volatility patterns. Your home for the data you need.
Reading Guide
Green bars (Positive Net GEX) — Strikes where call gamma dominates. The tallest green bar is the Call Wall, which acts as potential resistance.
Red bars (Negative Net GEX) — Strikes where put gamma dominates. The deepest red bar is the Put Wall, which acts as potential support.
Gamma Flip — The strike where net GEX crosses zero. Above the flip, dealers are long gamma (dampen moves). Below, dealers are short gamma (amplify moves).
Max Pain (MP) — The strike where option writers would have the least total loss. Price tends to gravitate toward this level near expiration.
Estimated gamma profile using 1000 option contracts expiring within 45 days. Weighted by daily volume (OI not available via free API). Greeks from Alpaca's indicative feed. Not a trading recommendation.
- Upper/lower bands show the options market's implied price range for each timeframe
- Daily and weekly bands use ATM straddle pricing (call + put premium x 0.85) for accuracy in short timeframes
- Monthly and yearly bands use annualized implied volatility scaled by the square root of time
- Wider bands = higher implied volatility = market pricing in larger potential moves
- These are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Actual moves can exceed implied ranges
- Composite IV: 13.83% (average across all near-ATM contracts)
- Options analyzed: 1000 contracts across 10 expirations
- Strike range: within 3% of spot price for IV sampling
- Source: Alpaca Market Data API (indicative feed)
- Refresh interval: Every 5 minutes during market hours
Reading the chart: Gray line = daily raw volume ratio. Blue line = smoothed 10-day moving average. Signal lines are calibrated from MA percentiles of our Alpaca data: 1.2 (P25 — bullish, low put activity), 1.6 (P50 — neutral median), 2.0 (P75 — heavy put hedging). Values are capped at 3.0 and days with insufficient volume on either side are excluded.
- S&P 500 (ES)
- CBOE Skew Index
Reading the indices: SKEW above 150 signals elevated tail-risk hedging (crash protection demand). VVIX measures VIX volatility itself — spikes indicate uncertainty about future volatility. Comparing VIX 9D vs 3M vs 6M reveals the term structure: when short-term VIX exceeds long-term, markets are pricing near-term stress (backwardation). The inverse (contango) suggests calm conditions.
Above average calm: It's been 121 days since the last spike, which is 53 days longer than the 2-year average. Historically, extended calm periods are often followed by volatility events.
| Spread | Wed 8/5 Last session | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nasdaq vs S&P 500 NQ vs ES | -0.66% | +2.87% | -1.85% | +4.75% |
Nasdaq vs Dow NQ vs YM | -1.31% | +3.10% | -1.61% | +3.49% |
Nasdaq vs Russell 2000 NQ vs RTY | -0.24% | +4.56% | -0.15% | -9.45% |
Risk-On Sectors
Growth — lead in rallies| ETF | Price | Wed 8/5 Last session ▼ | YTD | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Consumer confidence & spending strength | $118.64 | $22.59B | 0.7x | -5.1% | +0.30% | +0.07% | +5.56% | +0.53% | +0.25% | +6.59% |
XLF - Financial Yield curve & lending conditions | $58.00 | $51.35B | 1.0x | -0.7% | +0.21% | +0.87% | +1.75% | +3.31% | +5.59% | +12.40% |
XLK - Technology Tech leadership / AI & growth appetite | $185.91 | $123.91B | 0.8x | -6.5% | -0.53% | +4.98% | +5.79% | +1.27% | +28.84% | +41.74% |
XLC - Communication Services Ad spending & digital growth sentiment | $110.87 | $22.26B | 0.9x | -7.9% | -1.04% | +0.63% | +4.03% | +0.60% | -5.16% | +3.61% |
Cyclical Sectors
Economy-sensitive — expand with growth| ETF | Price | Wed 8/5 Last session ▼ | YTD | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XLB - Materials Inflation expectations & industrial demand | $52.64 | $8.17B | 1.1x | -2.8% | +1.23% | +1.94% | +1.94% | +1.27% | +14.14% | +21.49% |
XLI - Industrial Economic expansion & manufacturing activity | $186.35 | $33.96B | 0.8x | -1.0% | -0.03% | +1.77% | +4.46% | +0.43% | +17.96% | +24.40% |
Defensive Sectors
Safety & yield — lead in downturns| ETF | Price | Wed 8/5 Last session ▼ | YTD | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XLV - Health Care Defensive quality & policy sensitivity | $164.16 | $40.60B | 1.6x | -2.6% | +1.27% | -0.09% | +0.39% | +1.36% | +5.56% | +26.90% |
XLRE - Real Estate Rate sensitivity & yield demand | $45.20 | $8.10B | 1.3x | -2.7% | +0.07% | -0.02% | -0.22% | +2.05% | +11.94% | +11.14% |
XLP - Consumer Staples Defensive positioning & recession hedge | $85.33 | $13.65B | 0.7x | -5.3% | -0.05% | +0.60% | -0.16% | +1.46% | +9.83% | +6.11% |
XLU - Utilities Risk-off / rate sensitivity & yield seeking | $43.66 | $23.11B | 1.4x | -8.7% | -1.02% | -0.56% | -2.24% | -3.62% | +1.11% | +3.44% |
XLE - Energy Inelastic demand & commodity pricing power | $57.31 | $35.72B | 1.1x | -9.7% | -2.07% | -0.46% | -2.80% | +7.87% | +25.54% | +37.60% |
ETFs as Indicators
| ETF | Price | Wed 8/5 Last session ▼ | YTD | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD - Gold Rising = inflation hedge / uncertainty, falling = risk-on | $389.64 | $130.05B | 2.3x | -23.6% | +4.14% | +0.66% | +3.31% | +1.97% | -2.17% | +25.49% |
IBB - Biotech (Large Cap) Rising = speculative risk appetite, falling = risk-off rotation | $191.80 | $9.09B | 0.8x | -3.6% | +0.87% | +2.28% | +0.97% | -1.80% | +13.49% | +46.11% |
XBI - Biotech (Equal Weight) Small-cap biotech risk appetite & clinical pipeline sentiment | $153.01 | $10.73B | 1.1x | -7.7% | +0.74% | +3.10% | +1.02% | -4.85% | +25.91% | +78.29% |
JETS - Airlines Rising = travel demand & consumer spending, falling = recession fears | $33.53 | $959M | 1.3x | -1.6% | +0.39% | +2.23% | +5.84% | +0.57% | +18.52% | +41.90% |
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury Bond Rising = flight to safety, falling = risk-on / rate fears | $83.00 | $41.10B | 1.1x | -10.0% | +0.22% | +0.77% | +0.64% | -2.87% | -4.27% | -3.38% |
HYG - High Yield Corporate Bond Rising = credit confidence, falling = credit stress | $79.52 | $17.63B | 0.8x | -2.3% | -0.04% | +0.30% | +0.54% | -0.44% | -0.93% | +1.94% |
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap Rising = broad risk appetite, falling = flight to large cap | $299.77 | $82.97B | 0.8x | -1.1% | -0.64% | +1.85% | +2.45% | +0.29% | +20.50% | +36.76% |
KRE - Regional Banks Rising = financial stability, falling = banking stress | $77.34 | $4.74B | 0.7x | -1.3% | -0.64% | +1.01% | +1.90% | +2.36% | +18.55% | +31.89% |
USO - United States Oil Fund Rising = demand/supply tightness, falling = demand weakness | $114.88 | $1.88B | 0.7x | -25.4% | -0.78% | -5.19% | -9.88% | +10.09% | +66.59% | +55.69% |
SMH - Semiconductors Rising = tech cycle expansion, falling = demand concerns | $569.70 | $77.20B | 0.5x | -15.2% | -1.04% | +5.55% | +5.72% | -5.73% | +52.61% | +99.38% |
% Above Moving Average
Advance-Decline Data
Commercials added significant shorts while specs went long
Commercials covering shorts, specs reducing longs
Modest positioning shifts, no clear signal
Major commercial accumulation - potential rate rally setup
Historical Positioning
- Commercials
- Large Specs
- Small Specs
Net positions by trader type. Data from CFTC weekly Commitment of Traders reports.
- All-Time Avg
Avg monthly return with heatmap shading and % positive frequency below. Historical data for informational purposes only. Data from Yahoo Finance.
- Cumulative Flow
- Price
Methodology: Estimated daily flows calculated from price changes weighted by dollar volume. Positive price moves on high volume suggest inflows; negative moves suggest outflows.
Source: Yahoo Finance (estimated flows from price-volume analysis)
Deep-dive yield curve visualization with recession lag analysis, false signal tracking, and historical context.
Tracks high-yield bond spreads vs. Treasuries - a leading indicator of credit stress. Includes percentile rankings.
Weekly unemployment claims with 4-week moving average and year-over-year comparison. Early labor market stress indicator.
Aggregated consumer indicators: sentiment, credit card delinquencies, savings rate, retail sales momentum.