If the overall stock market rally is over, there will be plenty of puts that can profit on the crash… but puts on Google/Alphabet A Shares are worth $1,450 each, so any move is a big move.
This channel I’ve drawn seems accurate at most points, including the recent selloff. If the channel is a guide to a lower price move we could see $1,150 or $1,200 quickly. Elliott Wave corrections take an ABC form and fall to the bottom of the 4th wave (approximately $950) when the uptrend is still in play, and much further when the uptrend is over.
![](https://i2.wp.com/futuresintel.com/mywp/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/image-2.png?fit=1024%2C557&ssl=1)
The lowest put option I have available to buy in April is the 1040. And looks like it will go for $200 in a couple hours. At the money puts trade for around $5k – so I will be more than excited if we get even half way there.
If the market doesn’t go crazy tonight I will pick one up tomorrow @ $200. If they are less I will buy more, and then I may buy more if it rallies. Longer term options options are significantly more expensive – if there is a sweet spot I think it is the April 20th 1040 put – but I’m sure you know there are substantial risks trading any options, and even more so with significantly out of the money options.
![](https://i2.wp.com/futuresintel.com/mywp/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/image.png?fit=1024%2C705&ssl=1)
There is no certainty we are at the top, but many people agree it is due any day.
The main point I’m making is that when/if we do hit a peak, I think these A shares are the ones to hedge with.
I have March 3500 S&P calls as a hedge already if the market wants to continue higher, so my worst outcome is a couple months of consolidation.
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