If the overall stock market rally is over, there will be plenty of puts that can profit on the crash… but puts on Google/Alphabet A Shares are worth $1,450 each, so any move is a big move.
This channel I’ve drawn seems accurate at most points, including the recent selloff. If the channel is a guide to a lower price move we could see $1,150 or $1,200 quickly. Elliott Wave corrections take an ABC form and fall to the bottom of the 4th wave (approximately $950) when the uptrend is still in play, and much further when the uptrend is over.
The lowest put option I have available to buy in April is the 1040. And looks like it will go for $200 in a couple hours. At the money puts trade for around $5k – so I will be more than excited if we get even half way there.
If the market doesn’t go crazy tonight I will pick one up tomorrow @ $200. If they are less I will buy more, and then I may buy more if it rallies. Longer term options options are significantly more expensive – if there is a sweet spot I think it is the April 20th 1040 put – but I’m sure you know there are substantial risks trading any options, and even more so with significantly out of the money options.
There is no certainty we are at the top, but many people agree it is due any day.
The main point I’m making is that when/if we do hit a peak, I think these A shares are the ones to hedge with.
I have March 3500 S&P calls as a hedge already if the market wants to continue higher, so my worst outcome is a couple months of consolidation.