FED Watch

FOMC Rate Decisions & Market Reaction Analysis

Live Fed Funds Futures DataUpdated: Jul 16, 10:22 AM

Current Rate

3.50-3.75%

Next Meeting

Sep 16, 2026

Latest Meeting Implied

4.25 - 4.50

Meetings Tracked

2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule

Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings with implied rate probabilities from Fed Funds futures

Meeting Dates	Decision	SEP	Implied Rate After	Probability (Hold / Hike / Cut)	Description
Mar 18, 2026	Mar 18, 2026	Yes	3.00 - 3.25	0%0%100%	3.00 - 3.25: 100%
Apr 29, 2026	Apr 29, 2026	—	3.00 - 3.25	0%0%100%	3.00 - 3.25: 99.9%
Jun 17, 2026	Jun 17, 2026	Yes	3.00 - 3.25	0%0%100%	3.00 - 3.25: 100%
Jul 29, 2026	Jul 29, 2026	—	3.50 - 3.75	100%0%0%	3.50 - 3.75: 100%
Sep 16, 2026	Sep 16, 2026	Yes	3.25 - 3.50	0%0%100%	3.25 - 3.50: 100%
Oct 28, 2026	Oct 28, 2026	—	3.75 - 4.00	0%100%0%	3.75 - 4.00: 99.1%, 4.00 - 4.25: 0.9%
Nov 4, 2026	Nov 4, 2026	—	2.75 - 3.00	0%30%70%	2.75 - 3.00: 50%, 3.00-3.25: 30%, 3.25 - 3.50: 20%
Dec 09, 2026	Dec 09, 2026	Yes	3.75 - 4.00	0%100%0%	3.75 - 4.00: 94.8%, 4.00 - 4.25: 4.9%, 4.25 - 4.50: 0.3%
Jan 27, 2027	Jan 27, 2027	—	4.00 - 4.25	0%100%0%	4.00 - 4.25: 91.4%, 4.25 - 4.50: 7.7%, 4.50 - 4.75: 0.9%
Mar 17, 2027	Mar 17, 2027	Yes	4.00 - 4.25	0%100%0%	4.00 - 4.25: 84.9%, 4.25 - 4.50: 12.3%, 4.50 - 4.75: 2.8%
Apr 28, 2027	Apr 28, 2027	—	4.25 - 4.50	0%100%0%	4.25 - 4.50: 82.2%, 4.50 - 4.75: 13.9%, 4.75 - 5.00: 3.9%
Jun 09, 2027	Jun 09, 2027	Yes	4.25 - 4.50	0%100%0%	4.25 - 4.50: 81.9%, 4.50 - 4.75: 14.1%, 4.75 - 5.00: 4%
Jul 28, 2027	Jul 28, 2027	—	4.25 - 4.50	0%100%0%	4.25 - 4.50: 82.9%, 4.50 - 4.75: 13.3%, 4.75 - 5.00: 3.7%
Sep 15, 2027	Sep 15, 2027	Yes	4.25 - 4.50	0%100%0%	4.25 - 4.50: 85.8%, 4.50 - 4.75: 11.1%, 4.75 - 5.00: 3%
Oct 27, 2027	Oct 27, 2027	—	4.25 - 4.50	0%100%0%	4.25 - 4.50: 87%, 4.50 - 4.75: 10.3%, 4.75 - 5.00: 2.7%

Hold

Market expects no change to the Fed Funds rate target

Hike

Market expects a rate increase (tightening policy)

Cut

Market expects a rate decrease (easing policy)