FISE Score
The Futures Intel Simple Economic Score (FISES) is a composite indicator measuring economic health using free, publicly available data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API.
Growth & Activity
Measures of economic output, production, and business dynamism. These indicators track the real economy's expansion or contraction.
Labor Market
Employment conditions and job market health. Strong labor markets support consumer spending and economic stability.
Inflation
Price stability measures. Moderate inflation (2-3%) is healthy; too high or too low can signal economic problems.
Consumer Credit Stress
Household debt health indicators. Rising delinquencies signal consumer financial stress and potential spending pullback.
Business Credit Stress
Corporate and commercial debt health. Business credit stress can lead to layoffs, reduced investment, and economic contraction.
Financial Conditions
Market-based measures of risk appetite and monetary conditions. Tight conditions constrain growth; loose conditions support expansion.
Housing & Sentiment
Leading indicators of economic activity. Housing and consumer confidence often signal turning points before they appear in other data.
The FISES aggregates 22 key economic indicators from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API to provide a comprehensive snapshot of overall economic conditions across 7 categories.
Growth & Activity
- Real GDP Growth
- Industrial Production
- Retail Sales
- Business Applications
Labor Market
- Unemployment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Continuing Claims
Inflation
- CPI (Year-over-Year)
- PPI All Commodities
Consumer Credit Stress
- Credit Card Delinquency
- Consumer Loan Delinquency
- Mortgage Delinquency
Business Credit Stress
- Business Loan Delinquency
- Commercial RE Delinquency
Financial Conditions
- High Yield Spread
- Financial Conditions Index
- 2-10 Year Spread
- M2 Money Supply
Housing & Sentiment
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- Auto Sales
- Consumer Confidence
Score Calculation
Each indicator is weighted based on its economic significance. Some indicators are inverted (unemployment, delinquencies, spreads) where lower values contribute positively. The composite score (0-100) reflects overall economic health: 70+ Bullish, 50-70 Neutral, 30-50 Cautious, below 30 Bearish.
Disclaimer: The FIES Score is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.