FuturesIntel

    Real GDP Growth Rate

    Quarterly percent change in real gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted annual rate

    A191RL1Q225SBEA

    Real GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in the United States, adjusted for inflation. The growth rate shows the percentage change from the previous quarter, expressed as an annualized rate. This key economic indicator helps assess the health of the U.S. economy and is closely watched by traders, analysts, and policymakers.

    Historical GDP Growth Chart

    Jan 17Jul 17Jan 18Jul 18Jan 19Jul 19Jan 20Jul 20Jan 21Jul 21Jan 22Jul 22Jan 23Jul 23Jan 24Jul 24Jan 25Jul 25Apr 26-30%-10%10%37%
    GDP Growth
    Recession

    Related Indicators

    Real Gross Domestic Product
    Total economic output in constant 2017 dollars

    How GDP Growth Rate is Calculated

    Calculation Method

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates the quarterly GDP growth rate as an annualized rate using a two-step process:

    1. Quarterly Rate = (Current Q - Previous Q) / Previous Q
    2. Annualized = [(1 + Quarterly Rate)^4 - 1] × 100

    This annualization assumes the same growth rate continues for four consecutive quarters. The figures are seasonally adjusted to remove recurring patterns.

    Methodology Changes Over Time

    GDP growth rate measurement has evolved as the BEA improved its methodology to capture economic activity more accurately:

    • 1996 - Chain-Weighted Indexes: The BEA switched from fixed-weight methodology to chain-type Fisher indexes. This allows for changing relative prices over time, producing more accurate long-term growth comparisons.
    • 2013 - R&D Capitalization: Research and development expenditures began being treated as fixed investment rather than intermediate consumption, aligning with international standards.
    • 2015-2018 - Seasonal Adjustments: The BEA implemented improvements to reduce "residual seasonality" - systematic patterns that persisted in seasonally-adjusted data, particularly the tendency for Q1 growth to appear weaker.

    Understanding Revisions

    GDP growth rates are subject to revisions as more complete data becomes available. Annual revisions occur each summer, and comprehensive revisions every five years can adjust the entire historical series back to 1929.

    Current Reading

    2.20%
    As of Apr 2026
    Average2.79%
    Historical Range-28.0% to 34.9%
    Data Points38

    Key Thresholds

    Above 3% - Strong growth
    2-3% - Healthy growth
    0-2% - Slow growth
    Below 0% - Contraction

    FISES Usage

    Real GDP Growth has a weight of 2.3 in the FISES formula, making it the most influential indicator. Higher GDP growth increases the overall score.

    Release Schedule

    GDP is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), approximately one month after each quarter ends, with two subsequent revisions.

    • Advance estimate (1 month after quarter)
    • Second estimate (2 months after quarter)
    • Third estimate (3 months after quarter)